Hellas Verona 1-2 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Inter (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Hellas Verona face Inter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Hellas Verona host Inter at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 2 November 2025 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Hellas Verona — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Hellas Verona, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Hellas Verona have gone 0W 7D 3L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Inter have recorded 7W 0D 3L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Inter, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Inter have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.80), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The previous 8 encounters between these sides heavily favour Inter, who boast 7 victories compared to 0 for Hellas Verona.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–1 with Inter winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Inter have won 7 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.2 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Hellas Verona in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
Inter in-play and half-time data (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 43% versus Inter 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 45% | Inter 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.07 xG and Inter 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.837 / defence 1.069 | Inter attack 1.285 / defence 1.076. League average goals — home 1.191 / away 1.044. Inter have an above-average attack strength of 1.285 — the away xG of 1.44 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Hellas Verona games / 47 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 26% | Draw 30% | Inter 43%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 3.85 | Draw 3.33 | Inter 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Inter are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Hellas Verona 50% | Inter 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Nov 2025, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 26% | Draw 30% | Inter 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Hellas Verona 1.07 / Inter 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.837 / def 1.069 | Inter attack 1.285 / def 1.076 | league avg home 1.191 / away 1.044 • Poisson stance: Inter (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Inter xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Inter kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Inter kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 2 November 2025 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Hellas Verona 1 - 2 Inter.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Inter part of?
Hellas Verona vs Inter is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 26% chance of winning, Inter a 43% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Hellas Verona and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Record (8 meetings): Hellas Verona 0W | Draws 1 | Inter 7W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Inter (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Hellas Verona's attack rating (0.84) and Inter's defence rating (1.08), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Hellas Verona's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
26%
3.81
30%
3.30
43%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.51
1.44
Inter xG
3.81
26%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.30
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
24%
4.20
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
15%
6.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.5 | 9.0 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.7 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.44 for Inter, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 47 outings, Hellas Verona have picked up 0.89 PPG on a 10W 12D 25L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Hellas Verona is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Inter's form line: 30W 9D 8L from 47 games, 2.11 PPG, last five W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Inter is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.22 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Hellas Verona.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Hellas Verona have posted 0.87 PPG from 23 outings (4W 8D 11L).
On the road, Inter have gone 13W 5D 5L from 23 away games — 1.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.15 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 47 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Blended
Inter
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Inter in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 12D 25L in their last 47 games (0.89 PPG), while Inter have gone 30W 9D 8L in their last 47 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 0.87 PPG; Inter away: 1.91 PPG.
Have Hellas Verona or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Hellas Verona have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Inter in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Hellas Verona and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 May 2023, when Inter won 0-6 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Hellas Verona's record when hosting Inter specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
8
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 0, Inter have won 8, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Inter 1-1 Hellas Verona.
Who has won more matches between Hellas Verona and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Hellas Verona 39%, Inter 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Hellas Verona) and 48% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Inter in 52%; Hellas Verona have failed to score in 52% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Hellas Verona's recent matches and 35% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Hellas Verona vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Hellas Verona's recent games and 48% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Hellas Verona and Inter tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Inter in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Hellas Verona 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Inter beat Hellas Verona 1-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.07 xG and Inter 1.44 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Inter attack 1.28 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 26% | Draw 30% | Inter 43%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 45%, Inter 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Inter's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.11 PPG against 0.89. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.