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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hellas Verona and Como share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona and Como finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.76 xG and Como 1.52 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.64 / defence 1.25 against Como attack 1.06 / defence 0.99, drawn from 74/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 18% | Draw 27% | Como 55%, with Como to win its most likely call at 55%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 49%, Como 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Como's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights