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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Hellas Verona and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona and Cagliari finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.81 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Hellas Verona beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.71 / defence 0.98 against Cagliari attack 0.93 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 27% | Draw 38% | Cagliari 35%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Cagliari 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.91 PPG, Cagliari 0.98 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.73 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights