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Cagliari cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Hellas Verona 0-2 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.87 xG and Cagliari 1.08 xG, a combined 1.95. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Cagliari outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.68 / defence 1.27 against Cagliari attack 0.77 / defence 1.07, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 28% | Draw 33% | Cagliari 39%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 51%, Cagliari 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Cagliari's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Hellas Verona 0.99 PPG, Cagliari 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.03 scoring average — below par going forward. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.77 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.69 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights