Hellas Verona 0-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Hellas Verona vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi to face Hellas Verona in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 18 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Hellas Verona have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Hellas Verona have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bologna (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Bologna have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Hellas Verona against 1.40 for Bologna. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Hellas Verona have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Bologna in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Hellas Verona lead 2W to 1W over the last 4 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2023, ended 2–1 with Hellas Verona winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Hellas Verona goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Bologna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (41 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 56% versus Bologna 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 42% | Bologna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.36 xG and Bologna 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.953 / defence 1.064 | Bologna attack 1.133 / defence 0.954. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.195. Data: 41 Hellas Verona games / 41 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Bologna 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bologna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Hellas Verona 60% | Bologna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Hellas Verona vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi • Kick-off: Monday 18 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Hellas Verona 1.36 / Bologna 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Hellas Verona attack 0.953 / def 1.064 | Bologna attack 1.133 / def 0.954 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Bologna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Hellas Verona xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Bologna xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Hellas Verona vs Bologna kick off?
Hellas Verona vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 18 September 2023 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What was the final score in Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Hellas Verona 0 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Hellas Verona vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi.
What competition is Hellas Verona vs Bologna part of?
Hellas Verona vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Hellas Verona a 35% chance of winning, Bologna a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Hellas Verona and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Hellas Verona vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Bologna?
Record (4 meetings): Hellas Verona 2W | Draws 1 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Hellas Verona and Bologna in?
Hellas Verona (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Hellas Verona's attack at 0.95x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.13x) against Hellas Verona's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
35%
2.86
27%
3.77
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Hellas Verona xG
Total xG
2.80
1.44
Bologna xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
26%
3.90
Win to Nil
8%
12.06
10%
10.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.7 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 11.9 | 8.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.1 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Hellas Verona and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Hellas Verona and 1.44 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Hellas Verona vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Hellas Verona's recent record stands at 10W 10D 21L from 41 games, a 0.98 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Hellas Verona, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 13L across 41 games — 1.41 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bologna by 0.43 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Hellas Verona heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Hellas Verona have managed 7W 3D 9L from 19 games — 1.26 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Hellas Verona are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.37 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bologna in 63%.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Hellas Verona
Early Season
Bologna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Hellas Verona and Bologna in coming into this match?
Hellas Verona have gone 10W 10D 21L in their last 41 games (0.98 PPG), while Bologna have gone 15W 13D 13L in their last 41 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Hellas Verona at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Hellas Verona at home: 1.26 PPG; Bologna away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Hellas Verona have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Hellas Verona
2
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Hellas Verona and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Hellas Verona have won 4, Bologna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Hellas Verona and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Hellas Verona.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Hellas Verona are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 58% for Hellas Verona, 74% for Bologna — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Hellas Verona and 68% for Bologna. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 10% and 37% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Hellas Verona have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Hellas Verona home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Hellas Verona play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Hellas Verona's games and 74% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Hellas Verona vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Hellas Verona's matches and 68% of Bologna's.
Do Hellas Verona and Bologna tend to score early?
Hellas Verona have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bologna in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Hellas Verona's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Hellas Verona and Bologna finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 1.36 xG and Bologna 1.44 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Hellas Verona fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Bologna landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.95 / defence 1.06 against Bologna attack 1.13 / defence 0.95, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 35% | Draw 27% | Bologna 38%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 42%, Bologna 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Hellas Verona's trading profile (41 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bologna's trading profile (41 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.98. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.