🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant Atalanta run riot with a 0-5 hammering of Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Atalanta beat Hellas Verona 0-5 at Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Hellas Verona 0.67 xG and Atalanta 1.95 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 0-5 for 5 actual goals. Atalanta outscored their 1.95 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Hellas Verona attack 0.72 / defence 1.39 against Atalanta attack 1.07 / defence 0.68, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Hellas Verona 10% | Draw 24% | Atalanta 66%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 66%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Hellas Verona 56%, Atalanta 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Hellas Verona's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Atalanta's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.90 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.13 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.70 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Atalanta (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights