Hellas Verona 3-2 AS Roma – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Hellas Verona at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Hellas Verona face AS Roma.

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Fixture Analysis

Hellas Verona welcome AS Roma to Stadio Marcantonio Bentegodi in Serie A (matchday 11). Kick-off is Sunday 3 November 2024 at 17:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Hellas Verona have gone 3W 0D 7L — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Hellas Verona's form when playing at home: 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, AS Roma stand at 3W 4D 3L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

AS Roma away from home: 1W 6D 3L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Hellas Verona) versus 1.30 (AS Roma). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 60% of Hellas Verona's games and 70% of AS Roma's (from Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 6 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Hellas Verona, 3 for AS Roma and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 20 Jan 2024, ended Hellas Verona 1–2 AS Roma — a AS Roma win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Data

Hellas Verona trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).

AS Roma trading profile (last 48 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Hellas Verona 56% versus AS Roma 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Hellas Verona 56% | AS Roma 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Hellas Verona surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while AS Roma have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 31% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Hellas Verona 1.54 xG and AS Roma 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Hellas Verona attack 0.964 / defence 1.242 | AS Roma attack 0.819 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.402 / away 1.331. Hellas Verona's defence rating of 1.242 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing AS Roma's projected output up. Data: built from Hellas Verona's last 48 games and AS Roma's last 48.

Result probabilities: Hellas Verona 42% | Draw 25% | AS Roma 33%. Fair-value odds: Hellas Verona 2.39 | Draw 4.02 | AS Roma 3.01. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Hellas Verona at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Hellas Verona offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.90 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Hellas Verona's last 10 home games and AS Roma's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Hellas Verona 60% (last 10 home games) | AS Roma 70% (last 10 away games).

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