Genoa vs Venezia – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Genoa at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Venezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Luigi Ferraris plays host to Genoa versus Venezia in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 25 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Genoa's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 4W 0D 6L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Venezia have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D W L L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Venezia have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Venezia arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Genoa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Venezia in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Genoa, 1 for Venezia and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game from 6 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Feb 2025, ended 2–0 with Genoa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Genoa half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Venezia half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 51% versus Venezia 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 51% | Venezia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.58 xG and Venezia 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.889 / defence 1.285 | Venezia attack 0.816 / defence 1.436. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.323. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.436 — this is suppressing Genoa's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Genoa games / 3 Venezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 24% | Venezia 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Venezia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 1.39) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
Genoa dominate the H2H record, yet Venezia are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Venezia (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Genoa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.97 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 60%. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 42% | Draw 24% | Venezia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Genoa 1.58 / Venezia 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.889 / def 1.285 | Venezia attack 0.816 / def 1.436 | league avg home 1.237 / away 1.323 • Poisson stance: Genoa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Venezia xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Venezia kick off?
Genoa vs Venezia is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 25 October 2026 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Venezia part of?
Genoa vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 42% chance of winning, Venezia a 34% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Genoa and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
Record (6 meetings): Genoa 3W | Draws 2 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Genoa and Venezia in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Venezia (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Venezia's defence at 1.44x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Venezia's attack (0.82x) against Genoa's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.39.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
42%
2.38
24%
4.11
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
1 – 0
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.97
1.39
Venezia xG
2.38
42%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
7%
14.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 7.1 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.3 | 7.8 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 8.9 | 6.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Genoa and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Genoa and 1.39 for Venezia, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Venezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Genoa come into this having played 41 games, going 10W 11D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 2.00 PPG from 41 outings (24W 10D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Venezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.00 PPG clear of Genoa — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Genoa's home form reads 6W 4D 11L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.48 points per game from 21 outings (7W 10D 4L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Venezia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.93 scored and 0.93 conceded.
Defensively: Venezia in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Venezia in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 11D 20L in their last 41 games (1.00 PPG), while Venezia have gone 24W 10D 7L in their last 41 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Venezia away?
Venezia's away record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.05 PPG; Venezia away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Genoa or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Venezia in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 2W 1D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Venezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Genoa
2
Draws
1
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Venezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Venezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 17 February 2025, when Genoa 2-0 Venezia.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Venezia?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Venezia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 48%, Venezia 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Genoa) and 52% (Venezia).
On the defensive side: Genoa have failed to score in 43% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Genoa's games and 67% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Genoa's recent games and 52% of Venezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Venezia tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Venezia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.