Genoa 0-2 Udinese – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Genoa (50%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Genoa face Udinese.

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Analysis & Preview

Udinese travel to Stadio Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa in Serie A (matchday 30). The game is scheduled for Friday 20 March 2026 at 19:45 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Genoa have gone 5W 2D 3L — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Genoa's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Udinese — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Udinese away from home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Genoa are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Both teams have scored in 70% of Genoa's games and 60% of Udinese's (from Genoa's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

Genoa hold a clear advantage across the 7 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 0 for Udinese and 3 draws.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2025, ended Genoa 2–1 Udinese — a Genoa win.

The head-to-head data gives Genoa an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

In-Play Data

Genoa trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.

Udinese trading profile (last 67 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 82% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 52% versus Udinese 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 48% | Udinese 51%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 41% of cases while Genoa recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.79 xG and Udinese 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 1.167 / defence 1.066 | Udinese attack 1.002 / defence 1.195. League average goals — home 1.284 / away 1.178. Data: built from Genoa's last 67 games and Udinese's last 67.

Result probabilities: Genoa 50% | Draw 23% | Udinese 27%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.00 | Draw 4.31 | Udinese 3.72. Genoa hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS Yes probability 60% | Total xG 3.05. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.05 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% — both xG figures (1.79 / 1.26) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Genoa are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 3.05 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 59% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Genoa's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Genoa 70% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 60% (last 10 away games).

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