Genoa 1-2 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 41%, yet in-form Napoli provide a compelling counter-argument — this Genoa vs Napoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 2 as Genoa welcome Napoli to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Sunday 29 August 2021 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 0W 0D 1L from 1 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.00 points per game. Last five: L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 4.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 4.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have recorded 1W 0D 0L from 1 outings — 3.00 PPG. Last five: W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 1 games (100%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Form points away from home here. Napoli's 3.00 PPG return is 3.00 points per game ahead of Genoa's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using overall form). Genoa's 0% and Napoli's 0% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.50 xG and Napoli 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.960 / defence 1.150 | Napoli attack 0.850 / defence 1.150. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.380. Data: 1 Genoa games / 1 Napoli games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 25% | Napoli 34%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.44 | Draw 4.00 | Napoli 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Form shows strong BTTS No rates for both sides but Poisson BTTS probability is 58% — current-season attack strengths are higher than recent results suggest.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Genoa at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Napoli (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.85 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 41% | Draw 25% | Napoli 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Genoa 1.50 / Napoli 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.960 / def 1.150 | Napoli attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.380 • Poisson stance: Genoa (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Napoli xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Napoli kick off?
Genoa vs Napoli kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Genoa 1 - 2 Napoli.
Where is Genoa vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Napoli part of?
Genoa vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 41% chance of winning, Napoli a 34% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Genoa and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Genoa and Napoli in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-0D-1L in 1 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 4.00 | L5 L. Napoli (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.00 | L5 W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Genoa's attack rating (0.96) and Napoli's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
41%
2.44
25%
4.01
34%
2.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.85
1.35
Napoli xG
2.44
41%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
2.94
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
11%
9.39
8%
13.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.8 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.7 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Genoa and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Genoa and 1.35 for Napoli, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 0W 0D 1L from 1 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Napoli, meanwhile, have gone 1W 0D 0L across 1 games — 3.00 PPG, with W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Napoli by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Genoa heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 4.00 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 2.00 scored and 0.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Genoa have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Napoli in 0%.
Defensively: Napoli in 100% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 1 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Napoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Napoli in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 games (0.00 PPG), while Napoli have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 (3.00 PPG).
Have Genoa or Napoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Napoli in 100%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Napoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Napoli have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 May 2022, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
0
Genoa
3
Draws
5
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 0, Napoli have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Genoa 2-3 Napoli.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Napoli?
Napoli have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Genoa's recent matches and 0% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 100% of Genoa's recent games and 0% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Napoli tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Napoli in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Napoli defy the odds to beat Genoa 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.50 xG and Napoli 1.35 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.96 / defence 1.15 against Napoli attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 41% | Draw 25% | Napoli 34%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Napoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 100%, Napoli 0%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 0%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Genoa scored 1 against a 0.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 2 against a 4.00 average — tighter than their form line. Napoli shipped 1 against a 0.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.