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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Lecce 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Lecce 2-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 29, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.26 xG and Lecce 0.85 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 0.87 against Lecce attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 43% | Draw 33% | Lecce 23%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Lecce's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genoa 1.23 PPG, Lecce 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights