Genoa vs Lazio – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lazio (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Genoa face Lazio.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Genoa and Lazio meet at Stadio Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 28 February 2027 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Genoa (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Genoa have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Genoa have posted 3W 1D 6L at Stadio Luigi Ferraris — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Lazio have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Lazio have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lazio's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lazio are 1.70 PPG clear of Genoa in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lazio, who have claimed 8 wins from 9 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2026, ended 0–1 with Lazio winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Lazio have won 8 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Genoa — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lazio — key trading statistics (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 54% versus Lazio 30%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 51% | Lazio 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.85 xG and Lazio 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.847 / defence 1.235 | Lazio attack 0.988 / defence 0.734. League average goals — home 1.366 / away 1.331. Lazio's defence strength of 0.734 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 43 Genoa games / 43 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 20% | Draw 25% | Lazio 56%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 5.00 | Draw 4.00 | Lazio 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Lazio (56%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lazio at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Feb 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 20% | Draw 25% | Lazio 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 46% | xG Genoa 0.85 / Lazio 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.847 / def 1.235 | Lazio attack 0.988 / def 0.734 | league avg home 1.366 / away 1.331 • Poisson stance: Lazio (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Lazio xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Lazio kick off?
Genoa vs Lazio is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 28 February 2027 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Where is Genoa vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Lazio part of?
Genoa vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 20% chance of winning, Lazio a 56% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genoa and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
Record (9 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 8W.
What form are Genoa and Lazio in?
Genoa (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Lazio (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.85x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.73x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lazio's attack (0.99x) against Genoa's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.62.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-2 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
20%
5.11
25%
4.04
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
11.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.47
1.62
Lazio xG
5.11
20%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
20%
5.07
43%
2.34
Win to Nil
4%
25.92
24%
4.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 13.7 | 11.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.6 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.9 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Genoa and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Genoa and 1.62 for Lazio, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Lazio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 43 outings, Genoa have picked up 0.98 PPG on a 10W 12D 21L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Genoa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lazio's form line: 18W 13D 12L from 43 games, 1.56 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Lazio, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lazio are the form team by 0.58 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Genoa.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Genoa have posted 1.05 PPG from 22 outings (6W 5D 11L).
On the road, Lazio have gone 9W 6D 7L from 22 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lazio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Genoa are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.14 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 43 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Early Season
Lazio
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Lazio in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 10W 12D 21L in their last 43 games (0.98 PPG), while Lazio have gone 18W 13D 12L in their last 43 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.05 PPG; Lazio away: 1.50 PPG.
Have Genoa or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Lazio in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lazio have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lazio won 1-4 on 10 Apr 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Genoa have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Lazio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
1
Genoa
0
Draws
8
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Lazio?
From 9 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Lazio have won 8, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 30 August 2026, when Lazio 1-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Lazio?
Lazio have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Lazio see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 50% (Genoa) and 18% (Lazio) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Genoa) and 18% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Lazio in 50%; Genoa have failed to score in 41% of games; Lazio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Genoa's recent matches and 18% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Genoa's recent games and 18% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Lazio tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Lazio in 36% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.