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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 5

Kick-off

Mon 29 Sep 2025

19:45

Venue

Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Genoa Win

35%

Genoa

2.82

35%

Draw

2.84

29%

Lazio

3.40

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

0 – 0

16.3%

Draw

Most likely

1 – 0

15.7%

Home win

0 – 1

13.9%

Away win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

0.96

Genoa xG

Total xG

1.81

0.85

Lazio xG

35%
35%
29%
GenoaDrawLazio

2.82

35%

Home win

2.84

35%

Draw

3.40

29%

Away win

Goals Markets

54%

Over 1.5

1.85

46%

Under 1.5

2.17

27%

Over 2.5

3.70

73%

Under 2.5

1.37

11%

Over 3.5

9.09

89%

Under 3.5

1.12

4%

Over 4.5

25.00

96%

Under 4.5

1.04

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

37%

BTTS Yes

2.73

63%

BTTS No

1.58

Clean Sheet

43%

Genoa

2.34

38%

Lazio

2.62

Win to Nil

15%

Genoa

6.62

11%

Lazio

8.90

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 16.3 13.9 5.9 1.7 0.4 0.1
1 15.7 13.4 5.7 1.6 0.3 0.1
2 7.5 6.4 2.7 0.8 0.2
3 2.4 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.1
4 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1
5 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 0.962
λ Away (xG) 0.852
Total xG 1.814
League avg home goals 1.213
League avg away goals 1.114
Genoa attack strength 0.779
Genoa defence strength 0.931
Lazio attack strength 0.821
Lazio defence strength 1.018
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 42 / 42