Genoa 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Juventus at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Genoa vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Juventus travel to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris to take on Genoa. The game is scheduled for Friday 15 December 2023, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Genoa are significantly better at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Juventus have recorded 8W 2D 0L from 10 outings — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventus, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventus have posted 7W 1D 2L from 10 away outings — 2.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Juventus are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Genoa, 1 for Juventus and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 May 2022, ended 2–1 with Genoa winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Genoa in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Juventus in-play tendencies (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 40% versus Juventus 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Genoa 40% | Juventus 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.92 xG and Juventus 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.885 / defence 1.033 | Juventus attack 1.124 / defence 0.749. League average goals — home 1.385 / away 1.140. Juventus's defence strength of 0.749 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 15 Genoa games / 53 Juventus games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Juventus 45%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Juventus 2.22. Juventus hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventus are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventus offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Genoa 60% | Juventus 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Juventus 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Genoa 0.92 / Juventus 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.885 / def 1.033 | Juventus attack 1.124 / def 0.749 | league avg home 1.385 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Juventus (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Juventus xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Juventus kick off?
Genoa vs Juventus kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Genoa 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is Genoa vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Juventus part of?
Genoa vs Juventus is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 25% chance of winning, Juventus a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Juventus the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Genoa and Juventus will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
Record (2 meetings): Genoa 1W | Draws 0 | Juventus 1W.
What form are Genoa and Juventus in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Juventus (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.89x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.75x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (12.4%), 0-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventus Win
25%
4.03
30%
3.29
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.24
1.32
Juventus xG
4.03
25%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
7%
15.15
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 14.1 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 5.9 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Genoa and 1.32 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 53 outings, Genoa have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 25W 14D 14L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juventus's form line: 33W 9D 11L from 53 games, 2.04 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-W. The sample for Juventus is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.68 PPG, Juventus on 2.04. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Genoa have posted 2.04 PPG from 26 outings (15W 8D 3L).
On the road, Juventus have gone 14W 4D 8L from 26 away games — 1.77 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.91 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.49 scored and 0.79 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Juventus in 55% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Blended
Juventus
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Juventus in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 25W 14D 14L in their last 53 games (1.68 PPG), while Juventus have gone 33W 9D 11L in their last 53 (2.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Juventus away?
Genoa's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 2.04 PPG; Juventus away: 1.77 PPG.
Have Genoa or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Juventus in 55%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Juventus runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Juventus have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Sep 2024, when Juventus won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Genoa
2
Draws
5
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Juventus?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 1, Juventus have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Juventus last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2026, when Juventus 2-0 Genoa.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Juventus see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Genoa 35% BTTS, Juventus 27%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 31% for Genoa and 27% for Juventus.
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Juventus in 58%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Juventus?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Genoa's recent matches and 27% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Juventus usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Genoa's recent games and 27% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Juventus tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Juventus in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa and Juventus finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 16, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.92 xG and Juventus 1.32 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.89 / defence 1.03 against Juventus attack 1.12 / defence 0.75, drawn from 15/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Juventus 45%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 40%, Juventus 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 36%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.68 PPG, Juventus 2.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.