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Prediction vindicated as Inter edge out Genoa 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inter beat Genoa 1-2 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.97 xG and Inter 1.75 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.81 / defence 1.20 against Inter attack 1.32 / defence 0.96, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 21% | Draw 23% | Inter 56%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 46%, Inter 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Inter's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.10. That form edge translated into the three points.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights