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Prediction vindicated as Genoa edge out Hellas Verona 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Genoa beat Hellas Verona 2-1 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.00 xG and Hellas Verona 1.00 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.73 / defence 1.22 against Hellas Verona attack 0.73 / defence 1.15, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Genoa 33% | Draw 34% | Hellas Verona 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Genoa win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 44%, Hellas Verona 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Genoa's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Genoa 1.02 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights