Genoa 3-0 Cagliari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Cagliari fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Genoa host Cagliari at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 April 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Genoa — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Genoa have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cagliari stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
On the road, Cagliari have gone 1W 3D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Genoa at 1.00 PPG versus Cagliari's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Genoa, 1 for Cagliari and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 5 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2023, ended 1–2 with Cagliari winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (71 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Cagliari in-play and half-time data (71 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Cagliari 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 39% | Cagliari 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 1.33 xG and Cagliari 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.826 / defence 1.141 | Cagliari attack 0.763 / defence 1.194. League average goals — home 1.345 / away 1.180. Data: 33 Genoa games / 33 Cagliari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 43% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 28%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Cagliari 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Genoa 70% | Cagliari 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Cagliari | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Monday 29 Apr 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 43% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Genoa 1.33 / Cagliari 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.826 / def 1.141 | Cagliari attack 0.763 / def 1.194 | league avg home 1.345 / away 1.180 • Poisson stance: Genoa (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Cagliari xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Cagliari kick off?
Genoa vs Cagliari kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 April 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Genoa 3 - 0 Cagliari.
Where is Genoa vs Cagliari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Cagliari part of?
Genoa vs Cagliari is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 43% chance of winning, Cagliari a 28% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Genoa and Cagliari will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Cagliari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
Record (5 meetings): Genoa 2W | Draws 2 | Cagliari 1W.
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in?
Genoa (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Cagliari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Genoa's attack at 0.83x the league average against Cagliari's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cagliari's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.42
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.35
1.03
Cagliari xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.42
29%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
27%
3.77
Win to Nil
15%
6.56
7%
13.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 12.9 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Cagliari expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Genoa and 1.03 for Cagliari, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Cagliari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Genoa's recent record stands at 30W 23D 18L from 71 games, a 1.59 PPG return, with D-D-W-D-L in the last five.
Cagliari, meanwhile, have gone 22W 27D 22L across 71 games — 1.31 PPG, with L-D-W-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.59 PPG, Cagliari on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 17W 11D 6L from 34 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cagliari's away record stands at 5W 14D 15L across 34 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cagliari's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Genoa are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Cagliari are on 1.23 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cagliari in 61%.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Cagliari
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Cagliari in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 30W 23D 18L in their last 71 games (1.59 PPG), while Cagliari have gone 22W 27D 22L in their last 71 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Cagliari away?
Genoa's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.82 PPG; Cagliari away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Genoa or Cagliari been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Cagliari in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie A, Serie B all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 12 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Apr 2024, when Genoa won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Genoa's record when hosting Cagliari specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Genoa
5
Draws
1
Cagliari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Cagliari?
From 10 meetings on record, Genoa have won 4, Cagliari have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Cagliari last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2026, when Genoa 3-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Cagliari?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 44%, Cagliari 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Genoa) and 44% (Cagliari).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cagliari in 32%; Cagliari in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Cagliari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Cagliari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Genoa's recent matches and 44% of Cagliari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Genoa vs Cagliari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Genoa's recent games and 44% of Cagliari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Cagliari tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Cagliari in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Genoa run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Cagliari.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Cagliari 3-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 1.33 xG and Cagliari 1.03 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Cagliari landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.83 / defence 1.14 against Cagliari attack 0.76 / defence 1.19, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 43% | Draw 29% | Cagliari 28%, with Genoa to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 39%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (71 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cagliari's trading profile (71 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.59 PPG, Cagliari 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.44 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Cagliari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.91 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.26 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.