Genoa 2-0 Bologna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Genoa vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 38 as Genoa welcome Bologna to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris. Kick-off is set for Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Genoa have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L W D W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Genoa's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bologna's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Genoa) versus 1.70 (Bologna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Genoa have won 0, Bologna 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jan 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Genoa in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Bologna in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Genoa 48% versus Bologna 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Genoa 41% | Bologna 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Genoa 0.93 xG and Bologna 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Genoa attack 0.948 / defence 1.042 | Bologna attack 1.047 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.349 / away 1.226. Bologna's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 37 Genoa games / 75 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45%. Fair-value odds: Genoa 4.00 | Draw 3.33 | Bologna 2.22. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.26 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Genoa 60% | Bologna 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Genoa vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 46% | xG Genoa 0.93 / Bologna 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Genoa attack 0.948 / def 1.042 | Bologna attack 1.047 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.349 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Genoa xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Bologna xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Genoa vs Bologna kick off?
Genoa vs Bologna kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 24 May 2024 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Genoa 2 - 0 Bologna.
Where is Genoa vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Genoa vs Bologna part of?
Genoa vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Genoa vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Genoa a 25% chance of winning, Bologna a 45% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Genoa vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Genoa and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Genoa vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
Record (3 meetings): Genoa 0W | Draws 2 | Bologna 1W.
What form are Genoa and Bologna in?
Genoa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-D-W-L. Bologna (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Genoa's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Bologna's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.93. The same calculation in reverse, Bologna's attack versus Genoa's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
25%
4.02
30%
3.34
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Genoa xG
Total xG
2.26
1.34
Bologna xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.20
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
15.31
18%
5.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 13.9 | 9.3 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.9 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Genoa vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Genoa and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Genoa and 1.34 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Genoa vs Bologna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Genoa's recent record stands at 32W 24D 19L from 75 games, a 1.60 PPG return, with L-W-D-W-L in the last five.
Bologna, meanwhile, have gone 32W 26D 17L across 75 games — 1.63 PPG, with W-D-D-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Genoa on 1.60 PPG, Bologna on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Genoa have managed 19W 12D 6L from 37 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bologna's away record stands at 13W 12D 12L across 37 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Genoa come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Genoa are averaging 1.28 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.43 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Genoa
Current Season
Bologna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Genoa and Bologna in coming into this match?
Genoa have gone 32W 24D 19L in their last 75 games (1.60 PPG), while Bologna have gone 32W 26D 17L in their last 75 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Genoa at home or Bologna away?
Genoa's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Genoa at home: 1.86 PPG; Bologna away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Genoa or Bologna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Genoa have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bologna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Genoa and Bologna runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Genoa's record when hosting Bologna specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Genoa
3
Draws
2
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Genoa and Bologna?
From 8 meetings on record, Genoa have won 3, Bologna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Genoa and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Genoa and Bologna?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 49% of the time.
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Genoa 43%, Bologna 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Genoa) and 62% (Bologna).
On the defensive side: Genoa keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Genoa home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Genoa play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 43% of Genoa's games and 68% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Genoa vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Genoa's recent games and 62% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Genoa and Bologna tend to score early?
Genoa have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Bologna in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Genoa cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bologna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Genoa beat Bologna 2-0 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Genoa 0.93 xG and Bologna 1.34 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Genoa beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Genoa attack 0.95 / defence 1.04 against Bologna attack 1.05 / defence 0.72, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Genoa 25% | Draw 30% | Bologna 45%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Genoa win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Genoa 41%, Bologna 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Genoa's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bologna's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Genoa 1.60 PPG, Bologna 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Genoa win broke the near-deadlock. Genoa (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.