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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 16

Kick-off

Sun 21 Dec 2025

19:45

Venue

Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

Atalanta Win

33%

Genoa

3.07

27%

Draw

3.73

41%

Atalanta

2.47

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

12.7%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

10.9%

Away win

1 – 0

9.5%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.17

Genoa xG

Total xG

2.51

1.34

Atalanta xG

33%
27%
41%
GenoaDrawAtalanta

3.07

33%

Home win

3.73

27%

Draw

2.47

41%

Away win

Goals Markets

71%

Over 1.5

1.41

29%

Under 1.5

3.45

46%

Over 2.5

2.17

54%

Under 2.5

1.85

24%

Over 3.5

4.17

76%

Under 3.5

1.32

11%

Over 4.5

9.09

89%

Under 4.5

1.12

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

51%

BTTS Yes

1.96

49%

BTTS No

2.04

Clean Sheet

26%

Genoa

3.81

31%

Atalanta

3.23

Win to Nil

9%

Genoa

11.68

13%

Atalanta

7.96

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 8.1 10.9 7.3 3.2 1.1 0.3
1 9.5 12.7 8.5 3.8 1.3 0.3
2 5.6 7.5 5.0 2.2 0.7 0.2
3 2.2 2.9 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1
4 0.6 0.9 0.6 0.3 0.1
5 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.172
λ Away (xG) 1.338
Total xG 2.510
League avg home goals 1.249
League avg away goals 1.099
Genoa attack strength 0.828
Genoa defence strength 1.221
Atalanta attack strength 0.997
Atalanta defence strength 1.133
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 53 / 53