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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

Serie A · Regular Season - 37

Kick-off

Sun 17 May 2026

11:00

Venue

Stadio Luigi Ferraris

Competition

Serie A

Italy

Status

FT

Most Likely Outcome

AC Milan Win

31%

Genoa

3.26

29%

Draw

3.44

40%

AC Milan

2.48

Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines

1 – 1

13.2%

Draw

Most likely

0 – 1

12.7%

Away win

1 – 0

10.7%

Home win

Expected Goals & Win Odds

1.04

Genoa xG

Total xG

2.27

1.23

AC Milan xG

31%
29%
40%
GenoaDrawAC Milan

3.26

31%

Home win

3.44

29%

Draw

2.48

40%

Away win

Goals Markets

66%

Over 1.5

1.52

34%

Under 1.5

2.94

40%

Over 2.5

2.50

60%

Under 2.5

1.67

19%

Over 3.5

5.26

81%

Under 3.5

1.23

8%

Over 4.5

12.50

92%

Under 4.5

1.09

Match Markets

Both Teams to Score

46%

BTTS Yes

2.17

54%

BTTS No

1.85

Clean Sheet

29%

Genoa

3.42

35%

AC Milan

2.82

Win to Nil

9%

Genoa

11.16

14%

AC Milan

7.01

Score Probability Matrix (%)

H \ A 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 10.4 12.7 7.8 3.2 1.0 0.2
1 10.7 13.2 8.1 3.3 1.0 0.3
2 5.6 6.9 4.2 1.7 0.5 0.1
3 1.9 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.2
4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2
5 0.1 0.1 0.1

Green = home win Β· Grey = draw Β· Amber = away win Β· White ring = most likely score

Model Internals
λ Home (xG) 1.037
λ Away (xG) 1.230
Total xG 2.267
League avg home goals 1.248
League avg away goals 1.131
Genoa attack strength 1.024
Genoa defence strength 1.115
AC Milan attack strength 0.976
AC Milan defence strength 0.811
Data phase CurrentSeason
Games used (H/A) 74 / 74