Fiorentina 0-0 Venezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 62%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Venezia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 2 sees Venezia travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 25 August 2024, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Fiorentina have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Fiorentina's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across 10 games at Stadio Artemio Franchi this term (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie A games this season, Venezia have recorded 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Venezia have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Venezia's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fiorentina at 1.80 PPG versus Venezia's 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Fiorentina register both teams scoring in 90% of relevant matches, Venezia in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Fiorentina have won 1, Venezia 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Apr 2022, ended 1–0 with Fiorentina winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games).
Venezia in-play and half-time data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 56% versus Venezia 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 51% | Venezia 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 2.17 xG and Venezia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.168 / defence 1.033 | Venezia attack 0.868 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.406 / away 1.141. Venezia bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Fiorentina's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 39 Fiorentina games / 1 Venezia games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 62% | Draw 23% | Venezia 15%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.61 | Draw 4.35 | Venezia 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Fiorentina (62%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fiorentina as the most likely outcome at 62% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.20 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 62% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 59%. Form rates corroborate: Fiorentina 90% | Venezia 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Venezia | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 25 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 62% | Draw 23% | Venezia 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 59% | xG Fiorentina 2.17 / Venezia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.168 / def 1.033 | Venezia attack 0.868 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.406 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.17
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Venezia xG
59%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Venezia kick off?
Fiorentina vs Venezia kicked off at 17:30 on Sunday 25 August 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Fiorentina 0 - 0 Venezia.
Where is Fiorentina vs Venezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Venezia part of?
Fiorentina vs Venezia is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 62% chance of winning, Venezia a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Fiorentina and Venezia will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Venezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Venezia?
Record (2 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 0 | Venezia 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Venezia in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Venezia (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Fiorentina's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Venezia's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.17. The same calculation in reverse, Venezia's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/1 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
62%
1.62
23%
4.27
15%
6.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.17
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
3.20
1.02
Venezia xG
1.62
62%
Home win
4.27
23%
Draw
6.72
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.71
41%
BTTS No
2.42
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
11%
8.79
Win to Nil
22%
4.51
2%
59.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Venezia expected to score?
The model projects 2.17 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.02 for Venezia, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Venezia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fiorentina come into this having played 39 games, going 17W 10D 12L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Fiorentina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Venezia sit at 1.85 PPG from 39 outings (22W 6D 11L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Venezia, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.56 PPG, Venezia on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Fiorentina's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Venezia have taken 1.42 points per game from 19 outings (8W 3D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.85 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Venezia's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fiorentina are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Venezia are on 1.74 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Venezia in 62%.
Last 39 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Early Season
Venezia
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Venezia in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 17W 10D 12L in their last 39 games (1.56 PPG), while Venezia have gone 22W 6D 11L in their last 39 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Venezia away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.84 PPG; Venezia away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Venezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, Venezia in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Fiorentina's record when hosting Venezia specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Fiorentina
1
Draws
2
Venezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Venezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 1, Venezia have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Venezia last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2025, when Venezia 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Venezia?
Venezia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Venezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 63%, Venezia 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 68% for Fiorentina and 68% for Venezia. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 37% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Venezia in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Venezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Venezia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Fiorentina's games and 53% of Venezia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Venezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 68% of Fiorentina's matches and 68% of Venezia's.
Do Fiorentina and Venezia tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Venezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fiorentina's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina and Venezia finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 2.17 xG and Venezia 1.02 xG, a combined 3.20. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fiorentina fell 2.2 short of their projected output. Venezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.17 / defence 1.03 against Venezia attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 39/1 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 62% | Draw 23% | Venezia 15%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 62%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 51%, Venezia 69%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Venezia's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.56 PPG, Venezia 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Venezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.47 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.