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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fiorentina and Torino share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina and Torino finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.75 xG and Torino 1.12 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Torino outscored their 1.12 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.09 / defence 1.10 against Torino attack 0.88 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 52% | Draw 24% | Torino 24%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 61%, Torino 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.34 PPG, Torino 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Torino (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights