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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fiorentina and Torino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 21, as Fiorentina and Torino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.54 xG and Torino 1.28 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 1.04 against Torino attack 0.94 / defence 1.05, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 42% | Draw 28% | Torino 30%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 54%, Torino 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Torino's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.61 PPG, Torino 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fiorentina (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights