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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Napoli cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Fiorentina.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Napoli beat Fiorentina 1-3 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.08 xG and Napoli 1.13 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Napoli outscored their 1.13 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.08 / defence 0.97 against Napoli attack 1.08 / defence 0.79, drawn from 40/40 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 33% | Draw 31% | Napoli 36%, with Napoli to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 58%, Napoli 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Napoli's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.68. That form edge translated into the three points. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Napoli (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.53 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights