Fiorentina 2-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fiorentina at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Monza fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fiorentina host Monza at Stadio Artemio Franchi in Serie A, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 13 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fiorentina have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L D W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Fiorentina at Stadio Artemio Franchi this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Fiorentina are significantly better at Stadio Artemio Franchi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monza stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Monza's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Fiorentina at 1.30 PPG versus Monza's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Fiorentina, 1 for Monza and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Dec 2023, ended 1–0 with Fiorentina winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Fiorentina in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Monza in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 53% versus Monza 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 44% | Monza 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Monza 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 1.312 / defence 0.977 | Monza attack 0.874 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.355 / away 1.186. Fiorentina carry an above-average attack strength of 1.312 — their λ of 1.63 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 72 Fiorentina games / 73 Monza games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 22%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Monza 4.55. Fiorentina hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fiorentina are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fiorentina offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.64 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 70% | Monza 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Monday 13 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 52% | xG Fiorentina 1.63 / Monza 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 1.312 / def 0.977 | Monza attack 0.874 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.355 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Fiorentina (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Monza xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Monza kick off?
Fiorentina vs Monza kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 13 May 2024 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What was the final score in Fiorentina vs Monza?
Fiorentina 2 - 1 Monza.
Where is Fiorentina vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Monza part of?
Fiorentina vs Monza is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 51% chance of winning, Monza a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Fiorentina the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Fiorentina and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Monza?
Record (3 meetings): Fiorentina 1W | Draws 1 | Monza 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Monza in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Monza (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (1.31) and Monza's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fiorentina Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.71
22%
4.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.64
1.01
Monza xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
4.46
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
20%
5.10
Win to Nil
18%
5.43
4%
22.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.01 for Monza, a combined total of 2.64.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Fiorentina's recent record stands at 29W 19D 24L from 72 games, a 1.47 PPG return, with L-D-W-W-L in the last five.
Monza, meanwhile, have gone 25W 22D 25L across 72 games — 1.35 PPG, with L-D-L-D-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.47 PPG, Monza on 1.35. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Fiorentina have managed 18W 10D 8L from 36 games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Monza's away record stands at 12W 11D 13L across 36 trips, a 1.31 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fiorentina come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.44 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.18 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Current Season
Monza
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Monza in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 29W 19D 24L in their last 72 games (1.47 PPG), while Monza have gone 25W 22D 25L in their last 72 (1.35 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Monza away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.78 PPG; Monza away: 1.31 PPG.
Have Fiorentina or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fiorentina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Monza in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Monza runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to January 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Fiorentina's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Fiorentina
2
Draws
2
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 2, Monza have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2025, when Monza 2-1 Fiorentina.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 61%, Monza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Fiorentina) and 42% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Monza in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Fiorentina's recent matches and 42% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fiorentina vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Fiorentina's recent games and 42% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Monza tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Monza in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Monza 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fiorentina beat Monza 2-1 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.63 xG and Monza 1.01 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.31 / defence 0.98 against Monza attack 0.87 / defence 0.92, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 51% | Draw 27% | Monza 22%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 44%, Monza 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fiorentina's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Monza's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.47 PPG, Monza 1.35 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.