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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Fiorentina and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 12, as Fiorentina and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.15 xG and Juventus 1.23 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.01 / defence 1.28 against Juventus attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 32% | Draw 31% | Juventus 36%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 61%, Juventus 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Juventus's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.43 PPG, Juventus 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights