Fiorentina vs Genoa – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Genoa at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Genoa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Genoa travel to Stadio Artemio Franchi to take on Fiorentina. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2027, 17:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fiorentina stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fiorentina's home record at Stadio Artemio Franchi: 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Genoa — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Fiorentina 0.90 PPG, Genoa 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Fiorentina: 5 wins from 9 previous clashes against 1 for Genoa, with 3 draws across those contests.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Oct 2026, ended 1–2 with Genoa winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Fiorentina and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Fiorentina in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play tendencies (49 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 63% versus Genoa 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 59% | Genoa 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.34 xG and Genoa 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.920 / defence 1.227 | Genoa attack 0.779 / defence 0.965. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.449. Data: 49 Fiorentina games / 49 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 36% | Draw 26% | Genoa 38%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 2.78 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Genoa as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Genoa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting — though form averaging only 2.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 60% | Genoa 30%.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2027, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 36% | Draw 26% | Genoa 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Fiorentina 1.34 / Genoa 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.920 / def 1.227 | Genoa attack 0.779 / def 0.965 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Genoa (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Genoa xG
55%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Genoa kick off?
Fiorentina vs Genoa is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 21 March 2027 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Where is Fiorentina vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Genoa part of?
Fiorentina vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 36% chance of winning, Genoa a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Genoa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Record (9 meetings): Fiorentina 5W | Draws 3 | Genoa 1W.
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. Genoa (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Fiorentina's attack rating (0.92) and Genoa's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.34 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Fiorentina's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.4%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Genoa Win
36%
2.77
26%
3.90
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.73
1.39
Genoa xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.81
45%
BTTS No
2.24
Clean Sheet
25%
3.99
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
11.05
10%
10.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 9.1 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.2 | 8.4 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.39 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Genoa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 49 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 11W 18D 20L record — L-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa's form line: 14W 12D 23L from 49 games, 1.10 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fiorentina on 1.04 PPG, Genoa on 1.10. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 1.04 PPG from 23 outings (4W 12D 7L).
On the road, Genoa have gone 5W 7D 11L from 23 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Fiorentina are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.53 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.06 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Genoa in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 11W 18D 20L in their last 49 games (1.04 PPG), while Genoa have gone 14W 12D 23L in their last 49 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Genoa away?
Fiorentina's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 1.04 PPG; Genoa away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Fiorentina and Genoa runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jan 2022, when Fiorentina won 6-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fiorentina's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
3
Draws
1
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Genoa?
From 9 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Genoa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Genoa 2-1 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Genoa?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 65%, Genoa 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Fiorentina) and 48% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Genoa in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Genoa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Fiorentina's games and 56% of Genoa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Fiorentina's recent games and 48% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Genoa tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Genoa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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