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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Fiorentina 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Fiorentina 1-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.78 xG and Cagliari 1.10 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.18 / defence 1.05 against Cagliari attack 0.91 / defence 1.26, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 53% | Draw 23% | Cagliari 24%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 59%, Cagliari 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Fiorentina arrived the stronger side — 1.39 PPG against 0.98. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Fiorentina (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights