Fiorentina vs Bologna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bologna at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fiorentina vs Bologna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bologna make the trip to Stadio Artemio Franchi to face Fiorentina in Serie A, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Sunday 20 December 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fiorentina have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 2.30 conceded. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Fiorentina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Fiorentina have gone 1W 6D 3L this season (10 games, 0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Bologna's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L W W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bologna's form when playing away from home: 7W 0D 3L across 10 road games this term (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 2.10 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Bologna are 0.60 PPG clear of Fiorentina in recent Serie A fixtures (1.40 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 10 head-to-head meetings have produced 5 wins for Fiorentina, 4 for Bologna and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 10 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2026, ended 2–1 with Fiorentina winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Fiorentina — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Bologna — key trading statistics (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fiorentina 62% versus Bologna 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fiorentina 58% | Bologna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fiorentina 1.03 xG and Bologna 1.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fiorentina attack 0.834 / defence 1.144 | Bologna attack 1.106 / defence 0.810. League average goals — home 1.522 / away 1.502. Data: 48 Fiorentina games / 48 Bologna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fiorentina 20% | Draw 22% | Bologna 58%. Fair-value odds: Fiorentina 5.00 | Draw 4.55 | Bologna 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (58%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bologna are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.93 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Fiorentina 60% | Bologna 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fiorentina vs Bologna | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Dec 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fiorentina 20% | Draw 22% | Bologna 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 55% | xG Fiorentina 1.03 / Bologna 1.90 • Poisson strength factors: Fiorentina attack 0.834 / def 1.144 | Bologna attack 1.106 / def 0.810 | league avg home 1.522 / away 1.502 • Poisson stance: Bologna (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.03
Fiorentina xG
Expected Goals
1.90
Bologna xG
55%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fiorentina vs Bologna kick off?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 20 December 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
Where is Fiorentina vs Bologna being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Artemio Franchi.
What competition is Fiorentina vs Bologna part of?
Fiorentina vs Bologna is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our statistical model gives Fiorentina a 20% chance of winning, Bologna a 58% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Fiorentina and Bologna will score (BTTS).
Will Fiorentina vs Bologna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Record (10 meetings): Fiorentina 5W | Draws 1 | Bologna 4W.
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in?
Fiorentina (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-W. Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Fiorentina's attack at 0.83x the league average against Bologna's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.03 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bologna's attack (1.11x) against Fiorentina's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.90.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
20%
4.98
22%
4.51
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.03
Fiorentina xG
Total xG
2.93
1.90
Bologna xG
4.98
20%
Home win
4.51
22%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
15%
6.69
36%
2.80
Win to Nil
3%
33.31
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.3 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 10.4 | 9.9 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Fiorentina and Bologna expected to score?
The model projects 1.03 expected goals for Fiorentina and 1.90 for Bologna, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Fiorentina vs Bologna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 48 outings, Fiorentina have picked up 1.04 PPG on a 11W 17D 20L record — L-L-L-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fiorentina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bologna's form line: 20W 10D 18L from 48 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Bologna are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Fiorentina.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fiorentina have posted 0.96 PPG from 24 outings (4W 11D 9L).
On the road, Bologna have gone 13W 4D 7L from 24 away games — 1.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fiorentina are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Bologna are on 1.31 scored and 1.23 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 48 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fiorentina
Blended
Bologna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fiorentina and Bologna in coming into this match?
Fiorentina have gone 11W 17D 20L in their last 48 games (1.04 PPG), while Bologna have gone 20W 10D 18L in their last 48 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fiorentina at home or Bologna away?
Bologna's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fiorentina at home: 0.96 PPG; Bologna away: 1.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fiorentina have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bologna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Fiorentina
1
Draws
4
Bologna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Bologna?
From 10 meetings on record, Fiorentina have won 5, Bologna have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fiorentina and Bologna last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Bologna 1-2 Fiorentina.
Who has won more matches between Fiorentina and Bologna?
Fiorentina have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fiorentina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fiorentina 67%, Bologna 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Fiorentina) and 50% (Bologna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fiorentina home games / Bologna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fiorentina play Bologna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Fiorentina's games and 54% of Bologna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Fiorentina vs Bologna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Fiorentina's recent games and 50% of Bologna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fiorentina and Bologna tend to score early?
Fiorentina have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Bologna in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.