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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Fiorentina edge out Bologna 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Fiorentina beat Bologna 3-2 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Fiorentina 1.48 xG and Bologna 0.77 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Fiorentina beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bologna outscored their 0.77 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fiorentina attack 1.11 / defence 0.79 against Bologna attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Fiorentina 54% | Draw 28% | Bologna 19%, with Fiorentina to win its most likely call at 54%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fiorentina 55%, Bologna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Fiorentina's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Bologna's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Fiorentina 1.61 PPG, Bologna 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fiorentina win broke the near-deadlock. Fiorentina (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.78 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights