Empoli 0-1 Napoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 41% as Empoli take on Napoli.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Empoli host Napoli at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 October 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Empoli — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Empoli's home record at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Napoli have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Napoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Napoli have gone 3W 5D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.40 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Empoli) versus 1.80 (Napoli). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Empoli have won 4, Napoli 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Empoli winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Empoli in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 23% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Napoli in-play tendencies (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 33% versus Napoli 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 31% | Napoli 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 0.86 xG and Napoli 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.671 / defence 0.681 | Napoli attack 1.095 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.216. Empoli's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.86 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Empoli's defence rating of 0.681 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Empoli games / 45 Napoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 28% | Draw 41% | Napoli 31%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.57 | Draw 2.44 | Napoli 3.23. The draw (41%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
Empoli dominate the H2H record, yet Napoli are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 41% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.77 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 38% on No. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 30% | Napoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs Napoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Oct 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 28% | Draw 41% | Napoli 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 38% | xG Empoli 0.86 / Napoli 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.671 / def 0.681 | Napoli attack 1.095 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.216 • Poisson stance: Draw (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.86
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Napoli xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs Napoli kick off?
Empoli vs Napoli kicked off at 11:30 on Sunday 20 October 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs Napoli?
Empoli 0 - 1 Napoli.
Where is Empoli vs Napoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs Napoli part of?
Empoli vs Napoli is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs Napoli?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 28% chance of winning, Napoli a 31% chance, and a 41% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs Napoli?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Empoli and Napoli will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs Napoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Napoli?
Record (6 meetings): Empoli 4W | Draws 0 | Napoli 2W.
What form are Empoli and Napoli in?
Empoli (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-D-W-D-L. Napoli (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Empoli vs Napoli?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Empoli's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Napoli's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.86. The same calculation in reverse, Napoli's attack versus Empoli's defence, projects 0.91 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.53
41%
2.46
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.86
Empoli xG
Total xG
1.77
0.91
Napoli xG
3.53
28%
Home win
2.46
41%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
40%
2.48
42%
2.36
Win to Nil
11%
8.75
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.1 | 15.5 | 7.0 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.7 | 13.3 | 6.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs Napoli?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and Napoli expected to score?
The model projects 0.86 expected goals for Empoli and 0.91 for Napoli, a combined total of 1.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs Napoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Empoli come into this having played 45 games, going 11W 13D 21L for 1.02 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Napoli sit at 1.53 PPG from 45 outings (18W 15D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Napoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Napoli carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Empoli's home form reads 5W 8D 9L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Napoli have taken 1.45 points per game from 22 outings (8W 8D 6L).
The Goals Picture
Empoli are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Napoli are on 1.53 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Early Season
Napoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and Napoli in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 11W 13D 21L in their last 45 games (1.02 PPG), while Napoli have gone 18W 15D 12L in their last 45 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or Napoli away?
Napoli's away record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.05 PPG; Napoli away: 1.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Empoli and Napoli runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 April 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Napoli go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Napoli won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Empoli's record when hosting Napoli specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
4
Empoli
0
Draws
4
Napoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and Napoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 4, Napoli have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and Napoli last play each other?
They last met on 14 April 2025, when Napoli 3-0 Empoli.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Napoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Empoli 23% BTTS, Napoli 46%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 27% (Empoli) and 50% (Napoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 64% of games; Napoli in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / Napoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play Napoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 23% of Empoli's recent matches and 46% of Napoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs Napoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 27% of Empoli's recent games and 50% of Napoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and Napoli tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Napoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Napoli edge out Empoli 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Napoli beat Empoli 0-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.86 xG and Napoli 0.91 xG, a combined 1.77. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Empoli fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.67 / defence 0.68 against Napoli attack 1.09 / defence 0.89, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 28% | Draw 41% | Napoli 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 41%. The actual Napoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 31%, Napoli 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 53% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Napoli's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Napoli arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 1.02. Form held, and they took the win. Napoli (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.09 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.