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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Hellas Verona edge out Empoli 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Hellas Verona beat Empoli 1-2 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 0.88 xG and Hellas Verona 1.05 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Hellas Verona outscored their 1.05 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.73 / defence 1.17 against Hellas Verona attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 33% | Hellas Verona 38%, with Hellas Verona to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 39%, Hellas Verona 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Empoli 0.89 PPG, Hellas Verona 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Hellas Verona win broke the near-deadlock. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights