Empoli 2-1 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Empoli face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena plays host to Empoli versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Empoli have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Empoli have gone 3W 3D 4L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
AS Roma (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
AS Roma arrive in superior form — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to AS Roma, who have claimed 5 wins from 5 meetings compared to 0 for the hosts, with 0 draws.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 17 Sep 2023, ended 0–7 with AS Roma winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AS Roma have won 5 of 5 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Data
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
AS Roma goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Empoli 40% versus AS Roma 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Empoli 33% | AS Roma 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Empoli 1.01 xG and AS Roma 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Empoli attack 0.758 / defence 0.916 | AS Roma attack 1.139 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 1.210. Empoli's attack strength of 0.758 is below the league average — the 1.01 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 75 Empoli games / 75 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 41%. Fair-value odds: Empoli 3.45 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates corroborate: Empoli 20% | AS Roma 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Empoli vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 38 | Venue: Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 26 May 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Empoli 1.01 / AS Roma 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Empoli attack 0.758 / def 0.916 | AS Roma attack 1.139 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.361 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Empoli xG
Expected Goals
1.26
AS Roma xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Empoli vs AS Roma kick off?
Empoli vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 26 May 2024 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What was the final score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Empoli 2 - 1 AS Roma.
Where is Empoli vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena.
What competition is Empoli vs AS Roma part of?
Empoli vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 38 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Empoli a 29% chance of winning, AS Roma a 41% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Empoli and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Empoli vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
Record (5 meetings): Empoli 0W | Draws 0 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in?
Empoli (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. AS Roma (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Empoli's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (1.14x) against Empoli's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 75/75 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.0%), 0-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
29%
3.51
31%
3.25
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Empoli xG
Total xG
2.28
1.26
AS Roma xG
3.51
29%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.53
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
8%
12.39
15%
6.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 12.9 | 8.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Empoli and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Empoli and 1.26 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for Empoli vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Empoli's recent record stands at 18W 22D 35L from 75 games, a 1.01 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-D in the last five.
AS Roma, meanwhile, have gone 36W 18D 21L across 75 games — 1.68 PPG, with W-D-D-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours AS Roma by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Empoli have managed 12W 9D 16L from 37 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AS Roma's away record stands at 13W 11D 13L across 37 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Empoli are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.52 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Empoli
Current Season
AS Roma
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Empoli and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Empoli have gone 18W 22D 35L in their last 75 games (1.01 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 36W 18D 21L in their last 75 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Empoli at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Empoli at home: 1.22 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.35 PPG.
Have Empoli or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Empoli have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, AS Roma in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Empoli have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Empoli
0
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Empoli and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Empoli have won 2, AS Roma have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Empoli and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between Empoli and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Empoli see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Empoli 32%, AS Roma 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Empoli) and 57% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: Empoli keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Empoli have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Empoli home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Empoli play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Empoli's recent matches and 65% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Empoli vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Empoli's recent games and 57% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Empoli and AS Roma tend to score early?
Empoli have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Empoli defy the odds to beat AS Roma 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Empoli beat AS Roma 2-1 at Stadio Carlo Castellani – Computer Gross Arena, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Empoli 1.01 xG and AS Roma 1.26 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Empoli beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Empoli attack 0.76 / defence 0.92 against AS Roma attack 1.14 / defence 0.98, drawn from 75/75 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Empoli 29% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 41%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Empoli win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Empoli 33%, AS Roma 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Empoli's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
AS Roma's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.01. Form was overturned, with Empoli winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Empoli (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.