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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Udinese share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese and Udinese finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.18 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.93 / defence 1.15 against Udinese attack 1.03 / defence 1.09, drawn from 6/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 32% | Draw 31% | Udinese 37%, with Udinese to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 59%, Udinese 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Udinese's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.61 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights