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Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Sassuolo 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Sassuolo 3-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.21 xG and Sassuolo 1.08 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sassuolo outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Sassuolo attack 0.85 / defence 1.15, drawn from 1/1 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 37% | Draw 33% | Sassuolo 30%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 62%, Sassuolo 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.

Sassuolo's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sassuolo arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Cremonese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.68 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sassuolo (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights