🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Lecce.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese beat Lecce 2-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.20 xG and Lecce 1.26 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Lecce landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.88 / defence 1.30 against Lecce attack 0.85 / defence 1.11, drawn from 13/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 34% | Draw 30% | Lecce 37%, with Lecce to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Cremonese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 57%, Lecce 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not.

Lecce's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights