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Shock result as Juventus defy the odds to beat Cremonese 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Juventus beat Cremonese 1-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.02 xG and Juventus 0.89 xG, a combined 1.91. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Juventus outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 1.08 against Juventus attack 0.80 / defence 0.97, drawn from 9/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 36% | Draw 36% | Juventus 28%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Juventus win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Juventus 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Juventus's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.62 PPG, Juventus 1.81 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventus win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights