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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Como run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Cremonese.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Cremonese 1-4 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 38, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.68 xG and Como 1.53 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Como outscored their 1.53 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.78 / defence 1.20 against Como attack 1.11 / defence 0.72, drawn from 37/75 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 16% | Draw 26% | Como 58%, with Como to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Como 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Como's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cremonese 1.28 PPG, Como 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Como (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights