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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Cremonese and Cagliari share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cremonese and Cagliari finished level at 2-2 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.13 xG and Cagliari 1.34 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.89 / defence 1.22 against Cagliari attack 0.93 / defence 1.10, drawn from 18/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cremonese 31% | Draw 27% | Cagliari 42%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Cagliari 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cremonese's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights