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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Como and Venezia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 28, as Como and Venezia drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.74 xG and Venezia 0.97 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.12 / defence 1.16 against Venezia attack 0.70 / defence 1.19, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 54% | Draw 27% | Venezia 19%, with Como to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 52%, Venezia 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Venezia's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Como 1.55 PPG, Venezia 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights