Como vs Udinese Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Como at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Udinese encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Como welcome Udinese to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia in Serie A (matchday 28). Kick-off is Sunday 14 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Como have gone 7W 1D 2L — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Como's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 2D 1L (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Udinese — last 10 games: 1W 1D 8L — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Udinese away from home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Como are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.80 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.40). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Como have won 2, Udinese 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Scoring has been limited in the 5 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.8 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 22 Aug 2026, ended Como 1–1 Udinese — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Como in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Udinese in-play and half-time data (last 49 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 45% versus Udinese 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 45% | Udinese 49%). Note also that Udinese surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Como recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.62 xG and Udinese 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 0.903 / defence 0.612 | Udinese attack 0.954 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.511 / away 1.449. Como have a tight defence (rating 0.612), which is pulling Udinese's projected output down. Data: built from Como's last 49 games and Udinese's last 49.
Result probabilities: Como 56% | Draw 25% | Udinese 19%. Fair-value odds: Como 1.79 | Draw 4.04 | Udinese 5.14. The model has a clear lean to Como (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 46% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 54% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Como as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches — though recent form (Como's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 54%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Como 40% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 28 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Sunday 14 March 2027 at 17:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 56% | Draw 25% | Udinese 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 46% (No 54%) | xG Como 1.62 / Udinese 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 0.903 / def 0.612 | Udinese attack 0.954 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.511 / away 1.449 • Poisson stance: Como (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
Como xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Udinese xG
46%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Como vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Como vs Udinese kick off?
Como vs Udinese is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 UK time on Sunday 14 March 2027 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
Where is Como vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Udinese part of?
Como vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 28) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Como a 56% chance of winning, Udinese a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Como and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (54%).
Will Como vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Como's attack at 0.90x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.62 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Como's defence, projects 0.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Como's last 49 games and Udinese's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.2%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
56%
1.79
25%
4.04
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
Como xG
Total xG
2.47
0.84
Udinese xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.04
25%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.18
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
20%
5.07
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
4%
26.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.2 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 11.6 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.4 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Como vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Como and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for Como and 0.84 for Udinese, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 49 outings, Como have picked up 1.92 PPG on a 27W 13D 9L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Udinese's form line: 15W 10D 24L from 49 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Como are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Udinese.
Venue Form
On home soil, Como have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 23 home games (13W 7D 3L).
On the road, Udinese have gone 8W 4D 11L from their last 23 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Como are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.16 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Defensively: Como have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Como (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Como
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Como vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Como and Udinese in coming into this match?
Como have gone 27W 13D 9L in their last 49 games (1.92 PPG), while Udinese have gone 15W 10D 24L in their last 49 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Udinese away?
Como's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 2.00 PPG; Udinese away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Como or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 5 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2024. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jan 2025, when Como won Como 4-1 Udinese.
Como's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Como
2
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Como vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Udinese?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Como have won 2, Udinese have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Como and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Udinese 1-1 Como.
Who has won more matches between Como and Udinese?
Como have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 44%, Udinese 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Como) and 56% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Como keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Como vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Como and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Como's recent matches and 56% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Como and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Como's recent games and 56% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Como's recent matches and 74% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
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