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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Como run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Pisa.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Pisa 5-0 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 2.36 xG and Pisa 0.81 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Pisa landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.25 / defence 0.84 against Pisa attack 0.80 / defence 1.49, drawn from 67/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 72% | Draw 17% | Pisa 11%, with Como to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 45%, Pisa 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Pisa's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Como 1.54 PPG, Pisa 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Como win broke the near-deadlock. Como (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.52 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights