Como 1-1 Parma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Como at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Como vs Parma fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Parma make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie A, Regular Season - 8. The match kicks off on Saturday 19 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Como's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Como have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Como's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this term (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Como are significantly better at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia than their overall form suggests.
Parma (all games): 1W 6D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Parma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Parma's form when playing away from home: 2W 7D 1L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 0.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Como register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Parma in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Como, 3 for Parma and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 2.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Como — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Parma — key trading statistics (45 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Como 58% and Parma 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 58% | Parma 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.72 xG and Parma 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.120 / defence 1.268 | Parma attack 0.836 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.240. Data: 7 Como games / 7 Parma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 30% | Parma 26%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.27 | Draw 3.33 | Parma 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.04. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.04 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.31) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.04 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: Como 80% | Parma 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Parma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 44% | Draw 30% | Parma 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 63% | xG Como 1.72 / Parma 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.120 / def 1.268 | Parma attack 0.836 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.240 • Poisson stance: Como (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Parma xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Parma kick off?
Como vs Parma kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Parma?
Como 1 - 1 Parma.
Where is Como vs Parma being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Parma part of?
Como vs Parma is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Parma?
Our statistical model gives Como a 44% chance of winning, Parma a 26% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Parma?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Como and Parma will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Parma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
Record (6 meetings): Como 1W | Draws 2 | Parma 3W.
What form are Como and Parma in?
Como (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-W-L. Parma (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Como vs Parma?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Como's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Parma's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.72. Flip it around — Parma's attack (0.84x) against Como's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 1-2 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
44%
2.28
30%
3.32
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Como xG
Total xG
3.04
1.31
Parma xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.58
37%
BTTS No
2.73
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
18%
5.60
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
5%
21.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.3 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.9 | 7.1 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.1 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Parma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Como and Parma expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Como and 1.31 for Parma, a combined total of 3.04.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Parma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como come into this having played 45 games, going 23W 12D 10L for 1.80 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-W-L. It's still early in the season for Como, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Parma sit at 1.82 PPG from 45 outings (22W 16D 7L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Parma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.80 PPG for Como against 1.82 for Parma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Como's home form reads 13W 6D 2L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Parma have taken 1.67 points per game from 21 outings (9W 8D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Parma are on 1.69 scored and 1.04 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Parma in 64%.
Last 45 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Early Season
Parma
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Parma in coming into this match?
Como have gone 23W 12D 10L in their last 45 games (1.80 PPG), while Parma have gone 22W 16D 7L in their last 45 (1.82 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Parma away?
Como's home record (2.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 2.14 PPG; Parma away: 1.67 PPG.
Have Como or Parma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Como have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Parma in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Serie B, Serie A all feature in the head-to-head log. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Como have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Parma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Como
4
Draws
3
Parma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Parma?
From 10 meetings on record, Como have won 3, Parma have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Como and Parma last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Como 1-0 Parma.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Parma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 67%, Parma 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Como) and 57% (Parma). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Parma in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Parma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Parma?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Como's games and 57% of Parma's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Parma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Como's matches and 57% of Parma's.
Do Como and Parma tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Parma in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Parma share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 8, as Como and Parma drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.72 xG and Parma 1.31 xG, a combined 3.04. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.12 / defence 1.27 against Parma attack 0.84 / defence 1.05, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 44% | Draw 30% | Parma 26%, with Como to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 58%, Parma 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (45 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Parma's trading profile (45 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Como 1.80 PPG, Parma 1.82 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.