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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Hellas Verona.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Hellas Verona 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.52 xG and Hellas Verona 0.65 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.10 / defence 0.85 against Hellas Verona attack 0.72 / defence 1.16, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 57% | Draw 29% | Hellas Verona 14%, with Como to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 39%, Hellas Verona 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Hellas Verona's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Hellas Verona (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.61 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights