Como 1-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Como at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Como vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia to face Como in Serie A, Regular Season - 30. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 March 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Como have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Como at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Empoli's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Empoli have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Como. A 0.80 PPG lead over Empoli (1.00 vs 0.20) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Como register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Empoli in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Como, 1 for Empoli and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2024, ended 0–1 with Empoli winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Como goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 65% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Empoli goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Como 60% versus Empoli 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Como 52% | Empoli 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Como 1.79 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Como attack 1.051 / defence 1.159 | Empoli attack 0.889 / defence 1.300. League average goals — home 1.308 / away 1.205. Empoli bring a strong defensive rating of 1.300 — this is suppressing Como's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 29 Como games / 67 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Como 49% | Draw 26% | Empoli 25%. Fair-value odds: Como 2.04 | Draw 3.85 | Empoli 4.00. Como hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.79 / 1.24) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Como are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Como if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.03 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 61% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Como 70% | Empoli 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Como vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Mar 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Como 49% | Draw 26% | Empoli 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 61% | xG Como 1.79 / Empoli 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Como attack 1.051 / def 1.159 | Empoli attack 0.889 / def 1.300 | league avg home 1.308 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Como (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.79
Como xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Empoli xG
61%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Como vs Empoli kick off?
Como vs Empoli kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 29 March 2025 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What was the final score in Como vs Empoli?
Como 1 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Como vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia.
What competition is Como vs Empoli part of?
Como vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Como vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Como a 49% chance of winning, Empoli a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Como the favourite.
Will both teams score in Como vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Como and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Como vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Empoli?
Record (1 meetings): Como 0W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Como and Empoli in?
Como (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Como's attack at 1.05x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.79 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.89x) against Como's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 29/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Como Win
49%
2.05
26%
3.81
25%
3.99
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.79
Como xG
Total xG
3.03
1.24
Empoli xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
3.99
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.65
39%
BTTS No
2.54
Clean Sheet
29%
3.46
17%
5.98
Win to Nil
14%
7.10
4%
23.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.8 | 6.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 10.7 | 6.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.6 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Como vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Como and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.79 expected goals for Como and 1.24 for Empoli, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Como vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Como's recent record stands at 28W 18D 21L from 67 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with W-W-L-D-L in the last five.
Empoli, meanwhile, have gone 13W 19D 35L across 67 games — 0.87 PPG, with L-L-D-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Como by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Empoli heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Como have managed 17W 9D 7L from 33 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Empoli's away record stands at 7W 9D 17L across 33 trips, a 0.91 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Como come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Como are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.78 scored and 1.49 conceded.
Last 67 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Como
Current Season
Empoli
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Como and Empoli in coming into this match?
Como have gone 28W 18D 21L in their last 67 games (1.52 PPG), while Empoli have gone 13W 19D 35L in their last 67 (0.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Como at home or Empoli away?
Como's home record (1.82 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Como at home: 1.82 PPG; Empoli away: 0.91 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Como
1
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Como and Empoli?
From 2 meetings on record, Como have won 0, Empoli have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Como and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Como 1-1 Empoli.
Who has won more matches between Como and Empoli?
Empoli have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Como are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Como 70%, Empoli 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Como) and 42% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Como home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Como play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 70% of Como's games and 54% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Como vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Como's recent games and 42% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Como and Empoli tend to score early?
Como have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Empoli in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Como and Empoli share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 30, as Como and Empoli drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.79 xG and Empoli 1.24 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.05 / defence 1.16 against Empoli attack 0.89 / defence 1.30, drawn from 29/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Como 49% | Draw 26% | Empoli 25%, with Como to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 52%, Empoli 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Como's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.