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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Como cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Cagliari.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Como beat Cagliari 3-1 at Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Como 1.21 xG and Cagliari 0.97 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Como beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Como attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against Cagliari attack 0.85 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Como 41% | Draw 30% | Cagliari 29%, with Como to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Como 51%, Cagliari 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Como's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Cagliari's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Como arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 0.95. Form held, and they took the win. Como (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Cagliari (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights