🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Udinese defy the odds to beat Cagliari 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Udinese beat Cagliari 1-2 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.43 xG and Udinese 1.05 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Udinese outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.06 / defence 1.14 against Udinese attack 0.82 / defence 1.12, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 45% | Draw 29% | Udinese 27%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Udinese win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 53%, Udinese 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Udinese's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.96 PPG, Udinese 1.08 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Udinese win broke the near-deadlock. Udinese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights