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Prediction vindicated as Cagliari edge out Parma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Parma 2-1 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 24, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.79 xG and Parma 1.22 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against Parma attack 0.81 / defence 1.30, drawn from 61/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 48% | Draw 28% | Parma 24%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 54%, Parma 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Parma's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Parma arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights