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Dominant Cagliari run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Monza.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Monza 3-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 30, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 1.81 xG and Monza 1.17 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Cagliari beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Monza landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.95 / defence 1.13 against Monza attack 0.86 / defence 1.48, drawn from 67/67 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 51% | Draw 25% | Monza 23%, with Cagliari to win its most likely call at 51%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 52%, Monza 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Monza's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Cagliari 0.93 PPG, Monza 0.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cagliari win broke the near-deadlock. Cagliari (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line. Monza (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights