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Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat Juventus 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Cagliari beat Juventus 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.94 xG and Juventus 1.37 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Juventus landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 0.97 / defence 1.09 against Juventus attack 1.07 / defence 0.82, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Cagliari 26% | Draw 27% | Juventus 47%, with Juventus to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Cagliari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 50%, Juventus 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Cagliari's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Juventus's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Juventus arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.95. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Juventus (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights